Utility program deep dive · Virginia

Dominion Energy Virginia residential VPP economics

How a state-mandated VPP pilot, the world’s largest data center market and PJM capacity at its price cap make Dominion a prototype territory, and what home devices earn today.

VPP Economics has no affiliation with, sponsorship from, or endorsement by any utility, aggregator, platform, or device maker named here.

The short answer

  • Virginia’s VPP is past the planning stage. A 2025 state law required Dominion Energy Virginia to propose a virtual power plant pilot of up to 450 MW, the State Corporation Commission (SCC) approved it on August 3, 2026, and programs are expected to launch in early 2027.
  • The programs are still mostly classic demand response. Today a home can earn $25 a year from Smart Thermostat Rewards, $40 from EV Charger Rewards or up to about $28 from Peak Time Rebates. The pilot adds a bring-your-own-battery program at $1,000 plus $294 a year.
  • The territory is the story. Northern Virginia is the world’s largest data center market. Dominion’s 2026 IRP projects energy in its PJM zone growing 5.2% a year to 2046, PJM capacity is clearing at its price cap, and the Northern Virginia grid already runs under frequent local load relief warnings.
  • Pay lags value, for now. The battery pilot pays about $50 per kilowatt a year, while PJM capacity clears at about $119. At pilot pay, a $20,000 battery pays back in about 64.6 yr; valued at the PJM cap, about 28.7 yr.
450 MWVPP pilot ceiling set by law
5.2%a year, DOM Zone energy growth to 2046
53.8 GWcontracted data center capacity
$119per kW-year, PJM capacity at the cap

Dominion, Virginia and PJM: who does what

Dominion Energy Virginia serves most of central, eastern and Northern Virginia. Like Duke Energy Carolinas, it is vertically integrated: it owns the power plants, the wires and the meter. Unlike Duke, it sits inside PJM, the regional grid operator for 13 states and Washington, D.C., so its service area is also a PJM pricing zone, the DOM Zone, and its capacity is bought and sold in PJM’s auctions.

Three tracks

Where the money comes from, who sets the rules, and what reaches a household.

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Money comes fromRules set byWhat customers getDominionEnergy Virginia:generation, wires,meterBase rates and riders; the VPP pilotadds about 20¢ a month to a typicalbillPlans resources in its IRP;dispatches through the ConcertoDERMS, live since 2025Peak Time Rebates, Smart Thermostatand EV Charger Rewards, and the VPPpilot programs from 2027VirginiaSCC and GeneralAssemblyLaw sets the pilot at up to 450 MW,with at least 15 MW of homebatteriesThe SCC approved the pilot on August3, 2026, and reviews the IRP andratesCost caps, an income- andage-qualifying battery pilot and a2028 reportPJM and aggregatorsregional marketCapacity auctions clearing at thecap, about $119–$122 per kW-yearFERC-approved rules; Order 2222aggregations from February 2028Curtailment service providers forbusinesses; third-party DERs in theBYOD pilot
Simplified. Pilot cost from WHRO; law from the Code of Virginia; Order 2222 timing from Dominion’s filing. Sources below.

Virginia’s lawmakers, not only its regulator, set the direction here. The Community Energy Act of 2025 told Dominion to file a VPP pilot of up to 450 MW, with at least 15 MW of residential batteries and a path for third-party aggregators, ending July 1, 2028 (Code of Virginia). Dominion runs the pilot through one distributed energy resource management system (DERMS), Generac’s Concerto.

What makes Dominion different: a prototype territory

Every deep dive on this site follows the same template, but each has one feature that changes how its economics read. For Dominion it is not a program; the programs are still fairly standard. It is the territory. Dominion combines, in one service area, nearly every condition that should make a utility want flexible customer resources at scale: fast load growth, scarce and expensive capacity, local grid constraints, a legal mandate and the software to dispatch it. That makes it a preview of where other fast-growing territories are heading.

Load growth from the 2026 IRP

DOM Zone annual energy, 2026–2046, in gigawatt-hours.

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Stacked bar chart of DOM Zone annual energy from 2026 to 2046, rising from about 150,000 GWh to about 405,000 GWh, a 5.2% compound annual growth rate
Chart from Dominion Energy’s 2026 Integrated Resource Plan update. Blue: PJM-derived DOM load-serving entity (LSE) energy; green hatched: residual DOM Zone energy. Total rises from about 150,000 GWh in 2026 to about 405,000 GWh in 2046, a 5.2% compound annual growth rate.

The driver is data centers. Northern Virginia, centered on Loudoun County, is the largest data center market in the world (PJM Load Analysis Subcommittee). Dominion’s contracted data center capacity reached about 53.8 GW in July 2026, up from 16.5 GW three years earlier (Investing.com), and nine of the DOM Zone’s ten highest peak days on record came in 2026 (Dominion’s Q2 2026 call). The 2026 IRP update, filed October 15, 2026, plans 39,244 MW of new resources by 2046 (Energy News Beat).

The data center pipeline

Contracted data center capacity by contract stage, and the actual metered peak.

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0 GW10 GW20 GW30 GW40 GW50 GW60 GWJuly 2023contracted data center capacity16.5 GWJuly 2026ESA + CLOA + ELOA53.8 GWAugust 2026data center billing peak, actual4.8 GWElectric service agreementsConstruction lettersEngineering lettersMetered peak
Contract stages from Dominion’s Q2 2026 results: electric service agreements (ESA), construction letters of authorization (CLOA) and engineering letters of authorization (ELOA). Billing peak from PJM. Contracted capacity is not load; much of it may never be built. Sources below.

Capacity is scarce across PJM, and the price shows it. The last three base residual auctions cleared at the price cap: about $120, $122 and $119 per kW-year for 2026/27 through 2028/29, and the 2028/29 auction fell about 6.8 GW short of its reliability target (Utility Dive). Without the cap, the 2028/29 price would have been about $202 (PJM). PJM expects about 32 GW of peak growth by 2030, more than 90% of it from data centers, with the DOM Zone the largest share (Clean Air Task Force).

What a flexible kilowatt is worth

PJM capacity prices against what Dominion pays per kilowatt today.

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$0/kW-yr$50/kW-yr$100/kW-yr$150/kW-yr$200/kW-yrPJM capacity, uncapped2028/29 auction without the cap$202/kW-yrPJM capacity at the cap2028/29, $325 per MW-day$119/kW-yrBackup generator program$8.25 per kW-month, fossil$99/kW-yrBattery Storage Pilotabout $50 per average kW$50/kW-yrNon-Residential Curtailment$36 per kW-year$36/kW-yr
PJM prices converted from $ per MW-day. Battery pilot rate of about $50 per average kW from Virginia Solar; business program rates from Dominion. PJM accredits demand response and batteries at less than their nameplate, so the comparison is directional. Sources below.

The local grid is tight too. Dominion reports about 4 GW of data centers in Loudoun County alone, 178 post-contingency local load relief warnings so far in 2026, and an average warning length that grew almost five times from 2023 to 2025 (Dominion Energy). That is the kind of constraint a VPP can relieve in specific neighborhoods, not just at the system peak.

The VPP pilot

From law to program

Key dates for the Dominion Energy Virginia VPP pilot.

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202520262027202820292030May 2025VPP pilot law signed2025Concerto DERMS goesliveAug 3, 2026SCC Final OrderQ1 2027Programs launchFeb 2028PJM Order 2222 go-liveJul 1, 202815 MW of homebatteries; pilot ends2030+Permanent program,about 466 MW pathway
Dates from the Code of Virginia, the SCC’s 2026 report and Dominion’s filing. Launch and go-live dates are expected, not final. Sources below.

Dominion counts about 54 MW of customer resources already tied to the VPP, from existing demand response, and plans a path to about 466 MW by 2030 (Dominion filing). The SCC approved seven demand-side programs for an initial phase of about 18 months (SCC). Advanced Energy United argued that compensation is too low to attract batteries at scale (Advanced Energy United).

What each device earns, and who pays

Programs by device

Dominion Energy Virginia residential flexibility programs, open today and planned for 2027.

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ThermostatEV chargerHome batteryStatusSmart Thermostat RewardsGreater Grid, EnergyHub$25 + $25/yr——openPeak Time Rebatesany home with a smart meter$1.25 per kWhbehaviorbehavioropenEV Charger Rewardslisted Level 2 chargers—$125 + $40/yr—openManaged chargingVPP pilot—$40 + $10/mo—from 2027Battery Storage Pilotbring your own battery——$1,000 + $294/yrfrom 2027Income- and age-qualifyingfree Powerwall 3——about $20,000from 2027OfferedPartly or unclearThrough another companyNot offered
Thermostat terms from Greater Grid; Peak Time Rebates from Dominion; EV Charger Rewards from Greater Grid; pilot terms from Dominion’s filing. Sources below.

One home, one payer

Annual program pay by device for one hypothetical Virginia home with a battery, an EV and a smart thermostat.

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$0$100$200$300$400Battery — Storage Pilotfrom 2027, after $1,000$294EV — managed chargingpilot, non-time-of-use$120EV — Charger Rewardstoday, the alternative$40Thermostat — Rewardsafter the $25 sign-up$25Peak Time Rebatesup to, about 10 events$28VPP pilot or open programAlternative, does not stack
Peak Time Rebates pay $1.25 per kWh reduced across about 10 events a year (Dominion). Managed charging pays $40 plus $10 a month on a non-time-of-use rate, or $20 plus $5 a month on time of use (Dominion filing). Sources below.

A home in every program would earn about $439 a year, almost all of it from Dominion. Battery events run 20–60 times in summer and 10–20 in winter, up to three hours each (Virginia Solar). Enrollment is one program per device: the pilot bars double enrollment (Dominion filing).

Battery Storage Pilot

Home battery

$1,000 to enroll and $294 a year; 30–80 events a year, up to 3 hours.

Smart Thermostat Rewards

Smart thermostat

$25 to enroll and $25 a year for joining at least 75% of events.

+
Charger Rewards or managed charging

EV charging

$125 + $40 a year today; $40 + $10 a month in the pilot.

Net metering

Rooftop solar

Excluded from the VPP because it is already compensated through net metering.

Solar, batteries and the “free” charge

Batteries are the most valuable single asset in the pilot, but VPP growth at scale will depend on several assets working together at each home. Virginia’s current design keeps them apart. Rooftop solar is excluded from the VPP because it is already paid through net metering (WHRO), and a battery owner on net metering would not receive a second credit for energy exported during events, a point Advanced Energy United has criticized (Advanced Energy United). Under monthly net metering at the retail rate, a kWh stored from the roof is worth no more than a kWh exported, the same position as Puget Sound Energy and the Duke Bridge in our Duke Energy Carolinas deep dive. Stacking needs care, depending on M&V methodology.

If the home adds a battery

Four ways to value the same battery

Annual pay for one battery delivering about 5.9 kW in events.

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$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000Pilot pay today$1,000 + $294 a year$294PJM capacity at the cap5.9 kW × $119/kW-yr$698PJM capacity, uncapped5.9 kW × $202/kW-yr$1,191Advocates’ value study5.9 kW × $490/kW-yr$2,881
Pilot pay from Dominion’s filing. The 5.9 kW is implied by $294 a year at about $50 per kW. PJM prices from PJM. The value study estimates about $490 per kW-year of avoided costs (Solar United Neighbors and CEG). Gross payments, not net profit. Sources below.

Capital stack

Ten years of incentives and pay as a share of a $20,000 installed battery.

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0%50%100%150%200%Pilot pay today$1,000 + $294 a year20% · $3,940 vs $20,000PJM capacity at the cap5.9 kW × $119/kW-yr35% · $6,980 vs $20,000PJM capacity, uncapped5.9 kW × $202/kW-yr60% · $11,910 vs $20,000Advocates’ value study5.9 kW × $490/kW-yr144% · $28,810 vs $20,000Covers full costEnrollment incentivePilot payPJM at the capPJM uncappedValue study
Installed cost uses the approximate $20,000 value of a Tesla Powerwall 3 in the income- and age-qualifying pilot (Dominion filing). The federal residential battery credit ended December 31, 2025 (Solar Cost Data). No bill savings modeled. Sources below.

Payback

Simple payback in years, before degradation and financing.

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0 yr10 yr20 yr30 yr40 yrPilot pay today$1,000 + $294 a year40 yractual 64.6 yrPJM capacity at the cap5.9 kW × $119/kW-yr28.7 yrPJM capacity, uncapped5.9 kW × $202/kW-yr16.8 yrAdvocates’ value study5.9 kW × $490/kW-yr6.9 yr
Undiscounted. Bars are capped at 40 years. Sources below.

On today’s terms the battery case rests on backup power, not the pilot. The point of the other rows is the gap: if Dominion paid a home battery what PJM pays for capacity, the payback would fall by more than half, and on the value study’s numbers it would fall below ten years. Where Virginia settles between those rows is the decision that will shape its VPP after 2028.

Cash, a loan or a lease

Money in and out of the household, then cumulative cash over 10 years, on pilot terms.

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OWN IT OUTRIGHTCash−$20,000 to the installerday one+$1,000 Battery Storage Pilot enrollmentDominion, from 2027+$294 a yearBattery Storage Pilot pay=No bill savingsno bill savings modeled=Household owns the batteryand its backup value10-year net cash−$16,060Lowest total cost$BORROW THE NET COSTLoan=$0 down; incentive pays principalborrows $19,000−$231 a month for 10 years8% interest+$294 a yearBattery Storage Pilot pay=No bill savingsno bill savings modeled−$8,700 of interestover the loan term10-year net cash−$24,723Highest total costTHIRD-PARTY OWNERLease=$0 downleasing company buys the battery−About $165 a month for 10 yearsillustrative lease price+$294 a yearprogram pay, if the lease passes it on=Backup power during outageswithout owning the battery−About $4,000 buyout at year 1020% of the price; or return it=Owner keeps $6,000 creditand the $1,000 Battery Storage Pilot enrollment10-year net cash−$20,821Low upfront, buyout laterCumulative cash to the household, years 0–10−$25,000−$20,000−$15,000−$10,000−$5,000$0yr 0yr 2yr 4yr 6yr 8yr 10Cashowns the batteryLeaseowns after buyoutLoanowns the batteryCash pays $19,000 on day one, after the incentive$8,700 of loan interest
Illustrative, undiscounted. Loan at 8% over 10 years. The lease is priced at 9% on cost after the company’s 30% commercial credit and the enrollment incentive, with a 20% buyout at year 10. Sources below.

Why Dominion is ripe for more

A VPP readiness check

Eight conditions that make a territory ready for VPPs at scale, and Dominion’s status on each.

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What a VPP-ready territory needsWhere Dominion Energy Virginia stands, October 2026Fast load growthDOM Zone annual energy grows 5.2% a year through 2046 in the 2026 IRP, ledby data centersIn placeScarce capacityThree PJM auctions in a row at the price cap; the 2028/29 auction fellabout 6.8 GW shortIn placeLocal constraints178 post-contingency local load relief warnings so far in 2026, centeredon Northern VirginiaIn placeOrchestration softwareOne DERMS, Generac’s Concerto, live since 2025 and integrated with gridoperationsIn placeA mandate and a budgetState law: up to 450 MW and at least 15 MW of home batteries by July 1,2028In placeOpen accessA BYOD aggregator pilot capped at 1,000 enrollments; PJM Order 2222 fromFebruary 2028PartlyMulti-asset rulesNet-metered solar is excluded and each device takes one programNot yetPay that tracks valueBattery pilot pays about $50 per kW-year against about $119 for PJMcapacityNot yet
VPP Economics assessment from the 2026 IRP, Utility Dive, Dominion Energy, the Code of Virginia and Dominion’s filing. Sources below.

Six of the eight conditions are in place, which is rare. The two missing pieces are design choices rather than physics: paying resources closer to their capacity value, and letting solar, batteries, EVs and thermostats at the same address work as one resource. Dominion’s IRP still adds gas alongside storage, and its pilot cost is small, about 20¢ a month for a typical customer, so the question for 2028 is scale, not concept.

Pilot

Launch in early 2027

Dominion expects the DSM-XIV programs, including the VPP pilot, to launch around the first quarter of 2027 and run through 2030 (Dominion filing).

Deadline

15 MW of batteries by mid-2028

The SCC left budget flexibility so residential storage can reach 15 MW by July 1, 2028 (Advanced Energy United).

Market

PJM Order 2222 in 2028

Dominion’s filing plans for PJM’s distributed-resource aggregation rules to go live in February 2028 (Dominion filing).

IRP

39 GW of new resources

The 2026 IRP update adds 39,244 MW by 2046, including 3,525 MW of storage and 8,965 MW of gas (Energy News Beat).

Bills

A typical bill up 57%

The IRP projects a typical 1,000 kWh bill rising from $180.31 to $283.65 a month by 2046 (Energy News Beat).

Neighbor

Appalachian Power’s own pilot

A separate law gives Appalachian Power a 150 MW VPP pilot in southwest Virginia (Code of Virginia).

Related: the Duke Energy Carolinas residential deep dive for a vertically integrated utility outside PJM, the ComEd residential deep dive for another PJM zone, and the Dominion Energy Virginia C&I deep dive. To run other equipment, use the Residential VPP Calculator.

Method and caveats

An independent, hypothetical analysis for homeowners, renters, program managers, installers and other readers in Dominion Energy Virginia territory. Terms checked October 29, 2026.

Assumptions: one home battery at $20,000 installed, the value Dominion cites for a Powerwall 3; Battery Storage Pilot at $1,000 to enroll and $294 a year, implying about 5.9 kW at about $50 per kW. PJM capacity prices converted at 365 days a year. Pilot programs, prices and launch dates are as filed and approved and may change before launch. No bill savings, backup value or degradation modeled.

Figures are gross program payments before taxes, financing and degradation. Gross payments are not net profit. Peak Time Rebates, Smart Thermostat Rewards and EV Charger Rewards are event-based demand response; the VPP pilot dispatches devices through Dominion’s DERMS but is still mostly event-based. Stacking needs care, depending on M&V methodology.

VPP Economics has no affiliation with, sponsorship from, or endorsement by Dominion Energy, Generac, Tesla or any company named here.

Sources

Load growth, data centers and PJM

  1. Dominion Energy — 2026 Integrated Resource Plan update
  2. Energy News Beat — Dominion’s plan adds 39 GW of power
  3. Southern Environmental Law Center — Response to Dominion’s IRP
  4. Yahoo Finance — Dominion Energy Q2 2026 earnings
  5. Investing.com — Dominion Q2 2026 slides
  6. Stock Analysis — Dominion Q2 2026 call transcript
  7. PJM Load Analysis Subcommittee — Dominion Energy, September 2026
  8. PJM — Dominion load forecast documentation
  9. Dominion Energy — Operational realities of large load flexibility, September 2026
  10. Clean Air Task Force — Virginia’s uncertain energy future
  11. PJM Inside Lines — 2028/29 capacity auction results
  12. Utility Dive — PJM capacity auction at the price cap
  13. PJM — 2027/28 Base Residual Auction report

Virginia VPP law and pilot

  1. Code of Virginia — § 56-585.1:16, VPP pilot
  2. Code of Virginia — § 56-585.1:19, Appalachian Power pilot
  3. Utility Dive — Virginia leads with utility-scale VPP pilot
  4. Virginia SCC — Report RD623 (2026) on the VPP pilot
  5. Dominion Energy — Virtual Power Plant
  6. Dominion Energy — VPP pilot testimony, Schedule 1
  7. Advanced Energy United — SCC VPP order
  8. Advanced Energy United — Getting the VPP pilot right
  9. WHRO — Virtual power plants will launch soon in Virginia
  10. Solar United Neighbors and CEG — Value of a Virginia VPP

Dominion residential programs

  1. Dominion Energy — Peak Time Rebates
  2. Dominion Energy — Save energy programs
  3. Greater Grid — Dominion Smart Thermostat Rewards FAQ
  4. EnergyHub — Dominion Smart Thermostat Rewards terms
  5. Greater Grid — Dominion EV Charger Rewards
  6. Virginia Solar — Dominion VPP and home batteries

Costs

  1. Solar Cost Data — Energy tax credits in 2026

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